Environmental Assessment
Volume B-4.1
Mine
Flora
Ambatovy Project
183
January 2006
One assumption with regard to the on-site and off-site azonal conservation areas
is that they are of sufficient size to maintain viable plant populations and are in
general, ecologically sustainable. Fragmentation of the azonal habitat through
mine development and pressures on local timber resources may stress these
ecosystems greater than predicted. Initiatives set forth in the Forest Management
Plan will address these concerns but the success of the plan will be dependent
upon the cooperation of local villagers and their adherence to the primary
objective of sustainability.
It is also assumed that forest rehabilitation and reclamation efforts will be
successful in regenerating disturbance areas to semi-natural habitats. The
understanding of forest ecosystem dynamics in Madagascar is limited at this
time, which will result in reclamation development initiatives to identify the
optimum plan.
Confidence of the predicted effects from fugitive dust, SO
2
and NO
X
, is low.
With respect to the literature, there is contradictory evidence for example on the
direction of effects from NO
X
on vegetation (e.g., both positive and negative
effects have been observed in studies). Furthermore, vegetation effects
guidelines are based on data derived from temperate regions. Therefore, there
are inherent uncertainties when trying to extrapolate results and guidelines
derived from other regions of the world. Additional uncertainties can be
attributed to the air emission models as outlined in the Climate and Air Quality
Section (Volume B, Section 3.4). Thus, prediction confidence of residual
impacts for fugitive dust, SO
2
and NO
X
on vegetation is considered to be low.
There are also gaps of scientific knowledge regarding the potential effects of
water levels and water quality changes to wetlands vegetation. Models used to
predict these changes also have limitations. The effectiveness of the water
management plan is also a significant factor in the confidence of the predicted
effects to vegetation. However, the assessment made in the EA regarding effects
of water is based on conservative assumptions. Thus, prediction confidence of
residual impacts to wetlands is considered to be medium.
Monitoring
Monitoring programs will be implemented to ensure the adequate functioning of
the protection systems. These programs will:
•
Ensure that objectives of the forest management plan within the azonal
conservation areas are being met.
